Seedy-10 questions for Sept 2

They say elections have consequences. No foolin’. Lots of questions remain concerning the outcome of the CD-10 Special Election.

1. Can Senator Mark DeSaulnier’s ground game be the difference in what could still prove to be a close contest against fellow Democrat frontrunners Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan and Lt Governor John Garamendi?

2. How badly will Republican David Harmer lose to the eventual Democratic Party nominee in November?

3. Win or lose, is Joan Buchanan in the dog house with the Democratic leadership? She thumbed her nose at Assembly Speaker Karen Bass and other party leaders to wreck DeSaulnier’s chance of victory against Garamendi. Could the Dems get even and challenge her seat in AD-15 or worse—show Joan what a glass ceiling really looks like?

4. Will CD-10 even exist as it does now after a new round of amatuer hour gerrymandering after the 2010 census?

5. Everywhere I go I hear about the future Anthony Woods has in politics. What’s his next step for electoral politics? County Supervisor? Assembly? Mayor?

6. Will the unsuccessful GOP candidates rally to Harmer’s cause, or treat as they have been treated?

7. Will Tom Del Beccaro, vice chair of the California GOP and backroom bungler for Harmer’s stealth moderate campaign, parlay yet another electoral disaster into a party chairmanship?

8. Is there any doubt that the Contra Costa Times will endorse any Democrat v. Harmer?

9. How will Mark DeSaulnier handle his first ever political defeat?

10. Despite their conservative airs, how does the Nelson Rockefeller, country club statist wing of the current county GOP leadership even begin to make room for rising stars like Bunch, Clift, Loos, Toth, and Peterson?

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Comments

  1. RF says

    I wouldn’t really call Loos, Toth, and Peterson “Rising stars”. They ran for election and lost. Nothing else.

    Oh the group Bunch is the star, but needs to find “his” district/seat.

  2. Pappa Razzi says

    Freak, the only numbers that matter are the election returns. Sentiment is building against Obama and his radical policies. As the economy continues to tank with Obamas help, and the Congress passes Deathcare despite the objections of the people, Harmer may be able to make hay out of it by tying that yoke to Garamendi. Anyone who gives up before the race even starts is fooling themselves into a delusional stupor.

  3. Freak of the Far Right says

    Pappa Razzi…The numbers don’t lie. The Democrats control this district and any Republican who thinks they have a prayer of winning is fooling themselves into a delusional stuper.

  4. Pappa Razzi says

    What’s with the defeatist attitude? Everyone is so certain Harmer will get skunked in November. If he stands for conservative principals (NOT Ron Paul libertarianism), and against Obama’s generational theft policies, he stands a damn good chance. Gerrymandering in 2010??? The district already looks like a friggin’ octopus. How much worse could it get? Rising stars? They only vote for isolationists in Texas.

  5. says

    To try to answer your questions:
    1. As of around midnight it looks like Garamendi is in the lead so the ground game was not the difference.
    2., I would suspect that the split might be something like 57-42-1 between Dem-Rep-others
    3. I suspect that in 6 months it will blow over with Buchanan. Eventually when she re-runs for the Assembly she will still be the best candidate with a chance to win and she will get support. The interesting question here is the question of money. With her putting $750-850,000 of her own money into this effort will the money contributions be substantially less than last Year with the thought that she has her own money. The popular view is that the Republicans are more known to run revenge or internal knife fighting than the Dems. I do not recall a Democrat being challenged by a recall from his own party, but that has happened with the Republicans. However, I do not have the best view of the internal functions of the GOP.

    4. You can expect that after the next census that Garamendi’s ranch will be put in the district. Gerrymandering is alive and well and will be used extensively by which ever party controls the State Legislature.

    5. I have no idea what Woods would be looking at. He has a focus on the large rather than the local so I cannot see him getting involved in County Supervisor or a City politics.

    6. GOP internals I will leave alone. Generally when there is massive emotional investment in strong philosophical positions, compromise and pragmatic approaches are labeled as hypocrisy or flip flopping and the results are generally not good for an organization.

    7. The Tom Del Beccaro story line here is amusing. But as has been noted I am easily amused by politicos. I want to see the petition started here amount to something, after all I double dog dared the DA to do something.

    8. No doubt that the Contra Costa Times will endorse the Democrat vs. Harmer.

    9. DeSaulnier will handle defeat with good grace and will endorse the Democratic ticket to win in November.

    10. I do not know if Bunch-Clift-Loos-Toth-Peterson are rising stars in the GOP. Have any of them indicated that they are going to run for different offices? Have they gathered internal support in matters such as raising money, gathering votes, gathering internal support within the party from say people who have been elected to city council or other posts?
    As for the ‘conservative airs’ of the GOP leadership making room for different thinking folks-this may be difficult for an organization that has expunged its moderate wing and long since buried its socially liberal group and puts a higher emphasis on disciplined party line adherence as enunciated from what has been described herein as an isolated elite old guard. Sometimes you need a little chaos, lack of discipline to broaden the spectrum.

  6. CCR says

    How’s Tom Del Beccaro going to spin Harmer’s loss to Big John tomorrow morning? Pretend Harmer can win in November?

  7. m.a.sheridan says

    well, I ‘ll be doing a slow burn when my taxes arrive later this Fall. The bill includes Mello Roos for the Mt.Diablo Hospital District. Why do I pay Mello Roos on a hospital that is part of John Muir?? Please don’t tell me that I am still supporting the Mt.Diablo Hospital District Board- ALL a bunch of losers feeding at the public trough.

  8. Freak of the Far Right says

    Where does the Nelson Rockefeller, country club statist wing of the current county GOP leadership exist? The current county GOP leadership are more like a freak show John Birch Society than an organized party.

    • says

      TGDB INC is all about throwing out conservative values to win elections.
      read new paradigm toms eubonics primer for republicans

      eg Name anyone from the blue haired bush poodle club that REALLY championed school vouchers
      Leach? Baker? Lawrence? Simonsen? Gerber?

      They talk big about defunding Dept of Educations but it’s just claptrap

      Country club republicans love their public schools as long as they can tack on the lords prayer