It is the undying dream of the failed members of the state and local California Republican intelligentsia to somehow win back State Assembly District 15 (AD15).
The seat has become a symbol of Republican failure in Contra Costa County. It was the last partisan-held Republican seat in the Bay Area. The state Democratic party found a nice candidate in Joan Buchanan and after a quiet Democratic primary (compared to the Republican AD-15 royal rumble) Democrats dumped truckloads of cash into the race and vanquished the campaign of Abram Wilson and almost 20 years of the GOP’s hold on the seat.
Then we learn that Joan Buchanan is considering a run for the CD-10 seat that Rep. Ellen Tauscher will vacate soon. Buchanan is being cheered on by local Republicans in the vain hope of winning back AD-15.
If Buchanan runs, this would be a real disservice to the people of her Assembly district. Because she owes them the chance to see what a legislator from a majority party can get done for the district.
Many fine Republicans held the seat over the years but were always part of the minority party. If Buchanan leaves to run for higher office after just being elected last year, she will damage herself and her party in two ways.
If she loses the race for CD-10 she will be damaged as candidate when she runs for reelection in 2010. Voters and donors will question her commitment to AD-15. If she wins CD-10 the next Democratic candidate for AD-15 will have to run against an energized and possibly well-financed Republican opponent. On top of that, who do Democrats have in the wings as Buchanan is arguably the best they have in the San Ramon Valley.
Leaving the voters and your party after they just elected you to a competitive seat is not the best way to start a high-profile political career. So if Buchanan decides to run for CD-10, she better win or it will be a long hard slog for Buchanan….unless she decides to run for the District 7 Senate seat that would be vacated by Mark DeSaunlier if he suceeds to CD-10 instead of Buchanan.