If Joans wins CD-10, then what?

Republicans are praying that somehow, some way, Joan Buchanan wins the special election for Congressional District 10 (CD-10).

For that miracle could lead to another, a serious opportunity for the Republicans to regain California State Assembly District 15 (AD-15), now held by Buchanan.

San Ramon Mayor, Republican Abram Wilson, wants another shot at the job. Republicans are operating under the fantasy that if the seat opens up they will win.

Yet the voter registration numbers, which flipped to the Democrats before last year’s election, are even more unfavorable now. Last September, AD-15 was a one percentage point Democratic advantage. As of  March 20, 2009, the AD-15 is now a 4-point lead for Democrats.

The problem for the Democrats is there is no likely Democratic successor waiting in the wings to take Joan’s place. So I have a suggestion. (Jill Buck, Judy Lloyd, Scott Kamena or old honest Abram are you listening?) Some local prominent Republican needs to do an Arlen Spector and switch sides and run as a Democrat.

I know it sounds crazy, but what a concept. It could work. Voters in the Bay Area have demonstrated time and again that they are willing to put ideology aside and vote for the Democrat over practically any conservative Republican. Just check the elections where Donna Gerber crushed Kurt Kinney for County Supervisor.

The GOP has to wonder how it is that Jerry McNerney keeps winning in a majority Republican district? Or the fact that voters are willing to vote for tax increases for public schools in the Tri Valley?

The bottom line is being a Republican and running as a conservative is a ticket to defeat.

Republicans must think outside the box or wander forever in the wilderness.

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Comments

  1. Assembly District 15 voter says

    Remember Buchanan’s ads saying she would cut the budget and draw lots of lines through the unnecessary budget items? Buchanan ran as a fiscal conservative but she votes like a tax-and-spend liberal!

    Buchanan ran as a pseudo-Republican. She had good coaches and she knew what voters wanted. That was not a tax-and-spend liberal. Just because she had good ads doesn’t mean voters would be fooled again.

    As for Kurt Kinney as a model candidate? Your memory must be fading.