Garamendi claims CD-10 lead

Poll results released today from the John Garamendi for Congress campaign (CD-10) claim he leads all other candidates. Garamendi claims 31% of the vote, which leads fellow Democrats including California state Senator Mark DeSaulnier in second place with 21% , Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan (AD-15) with 17%, and Anthony Woods with 8%. David Harmer, the lone Republican showing in the poll, was preferred by five percent of respondents.

According to the Garamendi campaign, The survey sample was of 400 Democrats and “decline-to-state voters in the 10th Congressional District who are likely to vote in the September 1st special Congressional election. The telephone survey was conducted from August 2-4 by Tulchin Research, former pollster for Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher whose resignation to take a position in the Obama Administration led to this special election to fill her vacancy.

The press release for Garamendi claims his 10+ pt lead grows when respondents were given more information about the candidates, including his endorsement by former president Bill Clinton and Al Gore. Garamendi has served as President Clinton’s Deputy Secretary of the Interior, California’s first elected Insurance Commissioner and as the California’s Lieutenant Governor.

In response, the DeSaulnier campaign sent out counter mailing today with charges that Garamendi’s poll numbers were tainted and misleading, given the DeSaulnier camp had the script in hand–a story covered in more detail by Lisa Vorderbrueggen, with the Contra Costa Times. The Desaulnier mailer outlines the reasons the Garamendi poll does not accurately reflect the field:

– The poll was done only among Democratic and Decline to State voter
– The poll conspicuously fails to mention any movement from Garamendi’s other poll
– The poll asked 11 times more positive questions about Garamendi than the other candidates


  1. Edi Birsan says

    When reviewed in connection with the actual questions asked it is an interesting technique that dances around the edges of a poll pushing people in a certain direction. It is an interesting technique. There is a vacuum in multiple independent polling of the entire sample base of the electorate. What is also interesting is the lack of response from the Buchanan camp and the swift response from the DeSaulnier campaign. Considering that the election on Sept. 1 is a very special election (in Concord where we just got our by mail ballots) it is the only thing to vote on. This totally skews the concept of “likely voter” when there was only 20-40% of the electorate that bothered to vote in the May Special Election.